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Friday, January 10, 2014

Precursor to collapse? Baltic Dry Index Collapses 35% - Worst Start To Year In 30 Years

When this indicator of global trade rises, everything is rosy and reams of asset-gatherers and talking-heads wil quote it as indicative of how great the world is. When it drops - silence. There's always an excuse - over- or under-capacity, too many ships, too few ships, etc. However, the last 2 weeks have seen a 35% collapse in the cost to ship bulk. There is a relative seasonal pattern over the holiday period - with shipping costs rising into the holiday and falling after but... this is the biggest drop from a Christmas Eve since at least 1984, 30 yearsSeems like the inventory stacking of Q4 had absolutely no follow-through whatsoever...

All thepost-Thanksgiving exuberance has been eviscerated from the Baltic Dry Index...

and some context - this is the worst post-holiday start to the year since at least 1984!!

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